Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

物理化学实验多媒体课件的设计与应用

论述了物理化学实验课件经过多年的制作实践是如何从内容到方法逐步完善的设计理念 .使完成的物理化学实验课件在教学中得到广泛的应用 ,并收到传统教学所不能获得的教学效果 ,同时也得到了学生和专家以及同行的肯定 .     

在AutoCAD图形上直接进行数控编程的研究

本文介绍一种基于AutoCAD图形 ,用VisualBasic 5 .0为工具的交互式编程方法 ,较好地解决了数控程序的校验问题。     

磁悬浮长大干线车站设计的探讨

在综合考虑磁悬浮长大干线特点基础上,参考高速铁路车站的类型特点,根据磁悬浮线路特点和在长大干线上磁悬浮列车的运行特点,从磁悬浮车站的分类、站型设计和站场相关参数的计算等方面探讨了磁悬浮长大干线车站的设计.     

Visual Basic中动态数组的应用

Visual Basic中 ,动态数组的使用非常灵活 ,其用途十分广泛 .在循环使用一个以上动态数组时 ,优势更明显 .通过编写构造素数表以及求多项式导数的通用函数过程 ,可充分显示动态数组在 Visual Basic编程中的重要性     

Preferential excretion of glycated albumin in C57BL-Ks-J mice: effects of diabetes.

Urinary excretion of glycated albumin was quantitated in genetically hyperglycemic mice (C57BL-Ks-J, db/db mice), a model for non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and compared with their non-diabetic littermates. The data indicated a preferential excretion of glycated albumin in non-diabetic mice. This phenomenon of 'editing' of glycated albumin is decreased significantly in diabetic mice. Quantitative measurements of overall excretion of glycated albumin suggested that the loss of editing in diabetic mice is due to the dilution of glycated albumin by the unmodified albumin which is excreted in large amounts in diabetic mice. Therefore, the loss of editing observed in this model resembled the one we characterized in insulin-dependent diabetic humans and a streptozotocin-diabetic rat model.     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

Nuclear localization and signalling activity of phosphoinositidase C beta in Swiss 3T3 cells.

The hydrolysis of phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate (PtdInsP2) is a widespread receptor-coupled signalling system at the plasma membrane of most eukaryotic cells. The existence of an entirely separate nuclear phosphoinositide signalling system is suggested from evidence that purified nuclei synthesize PtdInsP2 and phosphatidylinositol 4-phosphate (PtdInsP) in vitro and that a transient decrease in the mass of these lipids occurs when Swiss 3T3 cells are cultured in the presence of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1). These IGF-1-dependent changes in inositol lipids coincide with an increase in nuclear diacyglycerol and precede translocation to the nucleus and activation of protein kinase C (refs 5, 6). Circumstantial evidence that links these changes with mitosis comes from the isolation of a 3T3 clone that expresses the type-1 IGF receptor and binds IGF-1 peptide but does not respond mitogenically or show transient mass changes in nuclear inositol lipids. A key question is how IGF-1 initiates the rapid breakdown of PtdInsP and PtdInsP2 in the nucleus. Here we present evidence that nuclei of 3T3 cells contain the beta-isozyme of phosphoinositidase C, whereas the gamma-isozyme is confined to the cytoplasm and that IGF-1 treatment stimulates exclusively the activity of nuclear phosphoinositidase C.     

Targeted disruption of the mouse transforming growth factor-beta 1 gene results in multifocal inflammatory disease.

Transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-beta 1) is a multifunctional growth factor that has profound regulatory effects on many developmental and physiological processes. Disruption of the TGF-beta 1 gene by homologous recombination in murine embryonic stem cells enables mice to be generated that carry the disrupted allele. Animals homozygous for the mutated TGF-beta 1 allele show no gross developmental abnormalities, but about 20 days after birth they succumb to a wasting syndrome accompanied by a multifocal, mixed inflammatory cell response and tissue necrosis, leading to organ failure and death. TGF-beta 1-deficient mice may be valuable models for human immune and inflammatory disorders, including autoimmune diseases, transplant rejection and graft versus host reactions.     

Short alanine-based peptides may form 3(10)-helices and not alpha-helices in aqueous solution.

Short alanine peptides, containing 16 or 17 residues, appear to form alpha-helices in aqueous solution. But the main spectroscopic analyses used on helical peptides (circular dichroism and nuclear magnetic resonance) cannot distinguish between an alpha-helix (in which the ith residue is hydrogen-bonded to residue i + 4; ref. 9) and the next most common peptide helix, the 3(10)-helix10 (i-->i + 3 hydrogen-bonding). To address this problem we have designed single and doubly spin-labelled analogues of alanine-based peptides in which the nitroxide spin label forms an unbranched side chain extending from the sulphur atom of a cysteine residue. Here we report the circular dichroism, Fourier-transform infrared and electron-spin resonance spectra of these peptides under helix-forming conditions. The infrared absorbance gives an amide I' band with a frequency that is substantially different from that observed for alpha-helices. The electron-spin resonance spectra of doubly labelled helices show that the ranking of distances between side chains, around a single turn (residues 4-8), is inconsistent with an alpha-helical structure. Our experiments suggest that the more likely peptide geometry is a 3(10)-helix.